When I read Erik Kain’s post yesterday about how the Ouya has essentially failed, my immediate response was “well, of course, the video game industry is drawing dead.” Let me explain what I mean.

When technological innovation leads to a new product class that catches in, there is an initial phase called the adoption phase which is characterized by large and rapid growth, continued innovation, and something of a mania around the product and industry. We saw that with video games in the ’90s.

But when an industry becomes mature, sales plateau as the product becomes a more banal part of everyday life and the mania generally declines. This can sometimes be wrenching for an industry, especially since what worked before no longer works now. They may fail to realize that no amount of innovation can change the total magnitude of the industry relative to life in general, just compete within the bounds of that magnitude. Firms whose models were built implicitly around a continuation of the adoption phase will fail.

To give you a concrete example, here’s car sales per thousand souls in the US since Ted Turner bought the Braves:

fredgraph

Beyond the extreme sensistivity to business cycles, what you see is that, despite the fact that the quality improvements in American cars since the days of Nader’s Raiders has been extraordinary in safety, comfort, fuel efficiency, pollution mitigation, and other cool accessory features, it hasn’t convinced Americans to buy more car overall. This pattern is clearly taking hold in the video game industry:

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Now, let’s be a little clear here – mobile gaming has done a lot for the category of industry we’re calling “video games.” But that’s because it expanded the boundary of what video games were, not because it convinced people to spend more time playing what, up through 2007-08, we referred to as “video games.” My mother plays plenty of Candy Crush Amazing Epic Super Saga: Incredible Journey of Candy Gilgamesh or whatever but that hasn’t convinced her to take up Halo (though the image of my mother pwning and trash-talking on XBox Live is pretty hilarious). In a sense, this growth is illusory insofar as you are considering the growth of console and PC gaming. That’s really clear when you look at this:

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Video games, methinks, have entered the phase in their life where they are no longer stealing American hours from other activities; indeed, if anything, the rise of Netflix, board games, and some backlash against video games probably means equilibrium per-capita video game hours will end up settling at a lower number than they currently are. The Ouya was implicitly premised on the idea that it wasn’t competing with existing consoles; it wasn’t doing what they were doing better or differently, it was trying to convince people to do something new. But for most people, if they weren’t playing video games, they were just doing something else. The Ouya was drawing dead because video games are drawing dead. That doesn’t mean the industry is going to implode; it just means its moved on to fierce competition for limited market share rather than explosive overall growth.

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