• War with Iran
  • Total European meltdown
  • Instability in China
  • Massive natural/environmental disaster
  • Premature tightening by the Fed

Absent these scenarios or other, even tail-ier risks (Indian-Pakistani war, alien invasion), I have trouble seeing a scenario in which the US economy does not vigorously recover this year. Of course, Friday’s numbers could make me look very stupid.

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