I think altogether too much thought has been put trying to squeeze link-bait blood out of the stone of “SCOTUS ACA ZOMG.” If the question is “who benefits if the Supreme Court does/does not overturn ACA?” the answer is simple – if it stays in place, Obama and the Democrats (and in my personal opinion, America) wins; if it is overturned, the Republicans win. Having a signature policy achievement tossed wholesale by the Supreme Court is a defeat and an embarassment and the public will see it as such. If the Supreme Court upholds it then the story will be “Obamacare Wins.” End of story.

OK, maybe not exactly end of story. There is a narrative by which defeat at the hands of SCOTUS only increases the urgency for the GOP to win this election as their only hope of ridding the world of Obamacare, as opposed to “being deflated by having a
majority-conserative Supreme Court side with socialist tyranny.” However, in that scenario, I think Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket would be an even-graver liability. How is the man who championed Romneycare and until 2009 publically advocated – not just supported, advocated – for an individual mandate energize the right-wing base any more than they would already be energeized? If there is a more complicated story here, I think it’s that, but that’s to some extent already been the story.