Obama will win with 332 electoral votes, giving back IN, NC, and NE-2 and keeping the rest of the 2008 states. He will win the popular vote more narrowly, with around 51% of the vote.

The story will be that the red states went vastly redder, especially Appalachia and the Deep South, whereas Obama’s 2008 coalition of minorities, creatives, youth, and moderate suburbanites proved more resilient than expected. The “white working class” will prove to be fragmented, moving away from Obama in the red areas while proving less fickle in the Midwest and Northeast. The gender gap will be stark but vary significantly by region. The red-state revulsion to Obama, on top of the natural move against him in high-population blue states like CA and NY, will prove to be the driver of the national popular swing against him, but he may also see some gains in AZ and TX. Latino turnout will be significantly higher than predicted.

OK, I’m on the record. Fingers crossed.

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