In response to an email from my father-in-law re: the "six strikes and you’re still in but slightly less in" system of attacking the Dread Pirate Bay, I wrote this:

I think there are some major weaknesses in this approach:

Firstly, small business will be in a bad position:

Secondly, file-sharing follows a power-law distribution – roughly 20% of file-sharers are reponsible for roughly 80% of file-sharing, and they know how to beat the system.

Thirdly, this is still a mostly-bogus problem:

Digital music sales are up and growing, and for the most part if there was no file-sharing almost none of those downloads would be replaced by sales. In fact, artists themselves benefit from file-sharing, especially those outside the top tier, since it gives them broader exposure (and leaves more money in the pockets of their fan for concert tickets and merchandise, of which a larger share of proceeds end up in the artists pockets compared to record sales, from which many artists never see a penny).

And lastly, ISPs really don’t care at all about this and consider the RIAA, MPAA, etc, to be giant nuisances. So to the extent this ever becomes truly annoying to internet customers ISPs will quit this completely voluntary program because the content providers aren’t their customers.

So I expect this new enforcement mechanism to quietly fizzle out within the year.

I should have also said:

Now, this is how you kill a pirate: