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Matt Yglesias and Tim Fernholz have both written great stuff about how US government borrowing is supporting US household deleveraging, a process Fernholz calls the “invisible bailout.” And they’re right, and for important reasons – as Yglesias says:
But when the household sector tries to reduce its indebtedness it needs to do something to make that happen. Stacking up huge piles of money in the closet is not a very sound method. As an individual, you don’t really need to think about this. You save by either lending money to your bank or else by purchasing a financial asset (stock, ETF, mutual fund, bond) from someone else. But that just puts the money in the bank fault or in someone else’s closet. Ultimately the money saved has to go to something.
What’s really interesting about that, though, is that it’s also true on a global level and not just a national one. One of Fernholz’s charts shows that the US has net-delevered even relative to pre-crisis 2007 levels. This should not only give a lot of pause to American austerity pushers, but austerity pushers everywhere. For if the US is net-saving, somebody else is net-borrowing. Europe? Maybe. But as austerity gets pushed harder there then that means either somebody else is saving less or some other party is borrowing more or both. Just like we can’t all be net exporters, we can’t all be net savers. In some sense, all saving is simply being the counterparty to someone’s borrowing (since saving is an attempt to push current consumption into the future and borrowing is the opposite) and therefore if you’re not affecting net global indebtedness you’re just squeezing the balloon. But net global indebtedness should be driven by the desire to save, not the desire to borrow – as long as the world is accumulating capital and is looking for some kind of store of value or investment return then they’ll find something, but in the absence of that you’re not going to magically find money to borrow. So the real question we should all be answering is “given the current global demand for savings how can we allocate that capital?” not “how can we reduce the federal government’s borrowing?”
I think this is all getting a little confused by the Euro crisis. Not being able to run experiments like this is what makes macroeconomics such a headache, but I’d bet dollars to donuts that on Earth-beta where there was never a European monetary union there is no debt crisis in Europe and most developed country would be currently borrowing at super-low rates, which is in fact what we see elsewhere.