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So the Marlyand Purple/Red Line debacle. In addition to all the more-often-explicated reason why Americans Can’t Have Nice Trains, one reason I don’t see brought up is how our ancient, arbitrary, and byzantine system of administrative subdivision creates baffling labyrinths of political economy. The Purple Line is located solely in Maryland, even though it is part of a larger system that serves DC and VA; but the latter two don’t want to pitch in first-order costs for second-order benefits, and nobody can make them. The regional authority governing the system has no ability to extract greater resources, and the same political economy under discussion so starves it of resources that it can barely keep its own shit together and is massively unpopular as a result (remember – starving government makes government bad makes government unpopular, that’s the cycle of outcomes and opinions the last few decades of increasingly conservative governances has deliberately tried to perpetuate). Meanwhile, within Maryland the Purple Line is located solely within two counties that are among the wealthier within the state so why should folks not served by the system pay? The federal government has an interest in the Purple Line but hahahah try getting something like this through Congress and anyway why should square state folk pay for coastal trains? But the logic of the project is just so strong and the constituencies for it sufficiently influential that it hobbles through only somewhat nerfed…at the expense of the entirety of a project of another transit project in a large but poorer city located solely within the same state.

This, of course, is terrible. And goes to a longtime hobbyhorse of mine, which I said really well above so I’ll just say again: our ancient, arbitrary, and byzantine system of administrative subdivision creates baffling labyrinths of political economy. There has been plenty of discussion of what the US should do to revise its federal system under conditions of godmode, and I fully endorse unicameral MMP (though not monarchy, that’s just silly, just make the Presidency a less-power, non-partisan office elected to decade-long terms and inculcate norms that generally-beloved national figures should run. Seriously, even for the limited purposes advocated therein you still have the problems of monarchy, which is total lack of desert, the randomness of birth and lineage, etc – just have folks elect a vector for national love and unity that’s still in line with American values of democracy and meritocracy. President Clooney, President Swift, President Ramos, etc etc).

But as long as we’re rewriting our entire system why leave the entire edifice of day-to-day government intact when overhauling the top layer? Especially since once you abolish the Senate the whole reason to leave “states” in place seems pretty silly.

So, here’s how we should run America:

Keep “states” (so we can keep the name of the country, after all) but have like, 8-10 of them, and make them correspond to large regions of unified culture/interest, something like Census regions or the turf covered by Circuit Courts, Federal Reserve Banks, etc, except with no regard for existing state lines. Then, get rid of counties and municipalities and replace them with metropolitan governments, that would cover whole metro areas, and ward governments, that would cover smaller, local areas. So instead of using our current example (which is admittedly one of the more egregious cases because of the unique nature of DC) let’s look at NYC instead – looking at just the NYC MSA, you’re looking at three states (none of whom have capitals proximate or part of America’s largest metro area, in which 1/15th of the entire country resides) comprising 25 counties and hundreds of municipalities, boroughs, wards, unincorporated areas, authorities, etc. Instead, you might have a “state” encompassing everything from Maine to Fredericksburg, VA, a metro generally aligning to the existing NYC metro, and then a quilt of small governments primarily responsible for purely local governments; NYC is tricky because it’s uniquely dense in the United States, but think something the size/population of SoHo, or even smaller.

This, of course, wouldn’t eliminate conflict or solve politics, but it would make lines of responsibility and questions of political economy clearer and more directly adjudicable. If you can create administrative units that largely encompass most of the people who would benefit, either directly or near-indirectly, from something like a major transit investment, and largely leave out people who wouldn’t.

Anyway, this is all politics as something approaching fan fiction but hey it’s Friday and in our real politics we just spent for-freaking-ever debating whether to control-Z national healthcare because [sic] so a little fantasy now-and-then isn’t the worst.

 

On an administrative note, while I’ve enjoyed the combination of Ello, tweeting a lot, and “being super busy at work,” I hereby declare the extended period of neglect of this particular space over and plan to at least semi-regular post thoughts here (though, hopefully, not at the expenses of doing other things of fun and value). I also plan on at least occasionally sending something out via Tinyletter so now might be good time of inviting me into your inbox every now and then.

A weekend thought: my father is the kind of guy who likes to come up with big monocausal theories to explain every little thing; he missed his calling as a columnist for a major newspaper. Anyway, last week we were chatting and he expounded on one of these theories, in this case a coherent and compelling narrative for the dramatic increase in dog ownership in recent years. The theory is unimportant (it had to do with a decline in aggregate nachas) but afterwards I decided for the heck of it to fact-check his theory. And what do you know? According to the AVMA’s pet census, dog ownership rates have declined, very slightly, from 2007 to 2012.

Now, I know why my dad thought otherwise – over the past few years, dogs have become fantastically more visible in the environments he inhabits, mainly, urban and near-suburban NYC. I am certain that, compared to 5-10 years, ago, many more dogs can be seen in public, more dog parks have emerged, and there are many more stores offering pet-related goods-and-services. But these are intertwined with substantial cultural and demographic changes, and authoritatively  not driven by a change in the absolute number of dogs or dog-ownership rate.

It’s hard to prove things with data, even if you have a lot of really good data. There will always be multiple valid interpretations of the data, and even advanced statistical methods can be problematic and disputable, and hard to use to truly, conclusive prove a single interpretation. As Russ Roberts is fond of pointing out, it’s hard to name a single empirical econometric work that has conclusively resolved a dispute in the field of economics.

But what data can do is it can disprove things, often quite easily. While Scott Winship will argue to death that Piketty’s market-income data is not the best kind of data to understand changes in income inequality, but what you can’t do is proclaim or expound a theory explaining a decrease in market income inequality. This goes for a whole host of things – now that data is plentiful, accessible, available, and manipulable to a degree exponentially vaster than any before in human history, it’s become that much more harder to promote ideas contrary to data. This is the big hidden benefit to bigger, freer, better data – it may not conclusively prove things, but it can most certainly disprove them, and thereby help better hone and focus our understanding of the world.

Frank DeFord, in some sort of ramble about the way things used to be versus the way they are today which I’m not sure I really understood (though, to be fair, I don’t really ever understand anything he says, about anything, really) mentions that Greater New York has “nine, count ’em, nine” professional teams in a tone that suggests that that is just too darn many.

But it’s really not. If you wanted to take the four major leagues’ 122 teams and distribute them about the US and Canada to represent the share of population in each metro area, well, Greater New York houses about 6.7% of all folks north of the Rio Grande, and 9 out of 122 is 7.4%, so perhaps a slight overrepresentation given that 8 out of 122 is 6.6%. Ironically, the overrepresentation seems to come from hockey, where Greater NY has three teams; it has two in every other league.

In fact, its the smaller cities that are substantially overrepresented. Take Indianapolis, which has just over one-half of one percent of combined Amero/Canuck pop. Yet it has the Pacers and the Colts, triple its “natural” share.

Of course, not all sports preferences are distributed evenly, and specifically the NFL doesn’t compete in Canada, making these guesstimates very rough indeed. But there’s nothing terribly unjust about the number of teams in the Big Apple.

Now, if I were DeFord, the point I would have made is just how much measures to coercively redistribute resources between teams to enforce equality of opportunity has not only increased the ability of non-dynastic teams to succeed but has also been extremely positive for the overall economic health of the leagues. The median NFL team today is worth ~75% more than the median NFL team in 2003, which outpaces the S&P 500 by 10pp over the same period, and the mean has increased even faster.

Of course, DeFord may have been making this point, and I just didn’t understand it. I don’t really understand his points, ever.

Of course, the even better point to make would have been “the Green Bay Packers are a far better model for sports franchises than private ownership and big-city mayors should refuse to fund stadia a penny with tax dollars unless the team is sold to the city.”

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