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A typical cow in the European Union [in 2002] receives a government subsidy of $2.20 a day.
And if your next thought isn’t “of course he’s going to reconstruct this figure” then you haven’t read this blog before, have you?
Turns out, though, that doing so was surprisingly challenging, in part because it meant recreating all the assumptions behind that figure and in part because European agricultural policy is an epic rabbit hole (cow hole?). But, after some slogging and some tweaking, I was able to recreate the methodology that produced the original $2.20/day (and subsequent $2.60/day) figure, but it came with a wallop of a surprise:
I didn’t adjust the currency because that’s it’s own field of cow holes, but yes, those 2002 and 2003 numbers basically check out. But look what’s happened since then!
Before you get too excited about the EU attempting a radical break with subsidizing agriculture, it turns out that this is a consequence of the ‘decoupling’ – the shift in EU ag policy from subsidizing specific commodities to subsidizing practices and benchmarks that cut across commodities, which has lead the OECD to basically throw up its hands in terms of trying to derive consistent commodity series. Don’t worry, though, I used a rough previous average of milk as a share of total ag subsidies to impute the recent numbers:
And given the wealth of data and anecdotal evidence that dairy farmers in Europe are still getting plenty of government (don’t say cheese don’t say cheese)…tofu?…anyway, there’s no reason to think European cows are getting too shafted, even though it does seem like 2002-03 was perhaps peak season for cow bucks.
But this doesn’t get into the larger issue with this number – that the vast majority of the total subsidy to dairy as computed by the OECD doesn’t come in direct government-to-producer payments but in implicit support, for example through tariffs, whose impact is much harder to quantify – they impute it through trying to measure negative consumer surplus. As Jacques Berthelot wrote at the time, their methods are far from bulletproof. Either way, the figure gives the at least somewhat-misleading impression that the $2.20/cow/day is received entirely in the form of cash transfers, which I suppose is misleading to the extent that you draw a distinction between the two.
Anyway, in conclusion – we no longer know how much subsidy European cows get, and maybe we didn’t really know at the time.
A final thought – a dairy cow in Great Britain will put you back, roughly on average, $2,500 (or just under 1500 GBP, or just over 1,850 EUR). So you could always try this yourself.
Wonkblog’s Matt O’Brien had a great reminder last week that Eurozone policymakers’ obsession with low inflation is fueling a monetary policy that is extremely damaging to the broader European economy and the lives of millions of Europeans. A recent paper, though, suggests the problem may be even worse then we thought.
Jessie Handburt, Tsutomu Watanabe, and David E. Weinstein recently published a paper that purports to have assembled “the largest price and quantity dataset ever employed in economics” to assess how well the official Japanese CPI is measuring inflation. The answer is ‘not so good’ – but the reason for that answer is scary. To wit:
We show that when the Japanese CPI measures inflation as low (below 2.4 percent in our baseline estimates) there is little relation between measured inflation and actual inflation. Outside of this range, measured inflation understates actual inflation changes. In other words, one can infer inflation changes from CPI changes when the CPI is high, but not when the CPI close to zero.
What does that mean? They draw two clear conclusions. Firstly, that national CPIs routinely overstate inflation – here is their (better) measure stacked against the official measure:
Since 1993, the official Japanese statistics show a net decline in prices of just a few percent, whereas the authors’ numbers show a decline close to 15%.
The other conclusion is that, even though over the long term the CPI overstates inflation, when inflation is low, the CPI is basically no better than a random guess as regards any particular measurement.
This means that while, on average, the CPI inflation rate is biased upwards by 0.6 percentage points per year, one can only say with 95 percent confidence that this bias lies between -1.5 and 2.8 percentage points. In other words, if the official inflation rate is one percent per year and aggregate CPI errors are the same as those for grocery items, one can only infer that the true is inflation rate is between -1.5 and 2.8 percentage points. Thus, a one percent measured inflation rate would not be sufficient information for a central bank to know if the economy is in inflation or deflation.
In case it wasn’t clear enough, Europe is definitely in the ‘flying blind’ zone:
As is more and more of the developed world in general:
This is, errr, kind of terrifying. Because what it all adds up to is the conclusion that monetary policy makers are throttling growth because they’re relying on data that is both inaccurate and imprecise. The inflation fears that have crippled Western recoveries for half-a-decade and running are based purely on phantoms.
A weekend thought: my father is the kind of guy who likes to come up with big monocausal theories to explain every little thing; he missed his calling as a columnist for a major newspaper. Anyway, last week we were chatting and he expounded on one of these theories, in this case a coherent and compelling narrative for the dramatic increase in dog ownership in recent years. The theory is unimportant (it had to do with a decline in aggregate nachas) but afterwards I decided for the heck of it to fact-check his theory. And what do you know? According to the AVMA’s pet census, dog ownership rates have declined, very slightly, from 2007 to 2012.
Now, I know why my dad thought otherwise – over the past few years, dogs have become fantastically more visible in the environments he inhabits, mainly, urban and near-suburban NYC. I am certain that, compared to 5-10 years, ago, many more dogs can be seen in public, more dog parks have emerged, and there are many more stores offering pet-related goods-and-services. But these are intertwined with substantial cultural and demographic changes, and authoritatively not driven by a change in the absolute number of dogs or dog-ownership rate.
It’s hard to prove things with data, even if you have a lot of really good data. There will always be multiple valid interpretations of the data, and even advanced statistical methods can be problematic and disputable, and hard to use to truly, conclusive prove a single interpretation. As Russ Roberts is fond of pointing out, it’s hard to name a single empirical econometric work that has conclusively resolved a dispute in the field of economics.
But what data can do is it can disprove things, often quite easily. While Scott Winship will argue to death that Piketty’s market-income data is not the best kind of data to understand changes in income inequality, but what you can’t do is proclaim or expound a theory explaining a decrease in market income inequality. This goes for a whole host of things – now that data is plentiful, accessible, available, and manipulable to a degree exponentially vaster than any before in human history, it’s become that much more harder to promote ideas contrary to data. This is the big hidden benefit to bigger, freer, better data – it may not conclusively prove things, but it can most certainly disprove them, and thereby help better hone and focus our understanding of the world.
Now that it’s been a few months, we can all calm down and stop arguing over power calculations in the Oregon Medicaid Study and acknowledge that the most important finding in the study was this one:
For all the talk about the state of American health, and whether Medicaid provides quality healthcare, people really neglected to discuss that health insurance is insurance, a fundamentally financial project in which customers exchange regular payments for a promise to be protected from the consequences of low-probability but high-cost events. It’s certainly an interesting question whether car insurance or homeowner insurance effect the rates of collisions or fires, but more importantly it is completely clear that these products eliminate people who have suffered those events from also being bankrupted. Similarly, health insurance is a way that people who contract cancer from not also contracting six-figure debts. Despite what is my very strong discomfort with conventional methods of statistical significance, it is clearly obvious from the above results that even the relatively-minimal insurance afforded by Medicaid succeeds somewhere between “substantially” and “wildly” in reducing the financial risk of illness.
Now, the health care market is a funny one, because of the weird ways we think about it and conceptualize, the expense of it, and the large hand the taxpayer has in it. But while we should definitely strive to increase the efficiency of health care, by encouraging good behavior and incentivizing preventative care and reducing wasteful care and introducing more cost-reduction pressure and reducing administrative costs and eliminating infections in hospitals, all that is separate from following the commitment our society has already made to guarantee at least some forms of medical care to those in need with a commitment to put a ceiling on the financial risk that individuals can incur when they elect to not simply wander off and die when catastrophic illness strikes.
Yesterday a friend of mine tweeted an invitation via a new service called Feastly. The invitation was to come to her home and eat a delicious, home-cooked gourmet meal in exchange for money. The service, Feastly, is set up to do exactly that – while it is still in private beta (and therefore cannot be fully-explored until one is invited in) it clearly aggregates offerings of that sort, sortable by dietary restrictions, price, attire, pet-friendliness, and other criteria. It’s a great idea, and one I wish I thought of.
On a social scale, I think as we see more services like this that directly connect buyers and sellers – think eBay, Etsy, ebook self-publishing – it will throw further into question whether statistics like GDP/GNI are useful metrics, not just of broader concepts like "standard of living," but of what they purport to measure. Every meal eaten on Feastly and not at a formal restaurant is one that involves an exchange of goods and services for money, and most of them will likely not be counted by current methods of measuring GDP. This issue predates the internet, of course, but the internet’s amazing power to match small-scale producers to buyers will accelerate this trend, as will the advent of 3-D printing.